| | |  | Ron Shevlin | Home » » Predictably Irrational: The Hidden Forces That Shape Our Decisions | | | | | | | Description: | | - Why do our headaches persist after taking a one-cent aspirin but disappear when we take a 50-cent aspirin?
- Why does recalling the Ten Commandments reduce our tendency to lie, even when we couldn't possibly be caught?
- Why do we splurge on a lavish meal but cut coupons to save twenty-five cents on a can of soup?
- Why do we go back for second helpings at the unlimited buffet, even when our stomachs are already full?
- And how did we ever start spending $4.15 on a cup of coffee when, just a few years ago, we used to pay less than a dollar?
When it comes to making decisions in our lives, we think we're in control. We think we're making smart, rational choices. But are we? In a series of illuminating, often surprising experiments, MIT behavioral economist Dan Ariely refutes the common assumption that we behave in fundamentally rational ways. Blending everyday experience with groundbreaking research, Ariely explains how expectations, emotions, social norms, and other invisible, seemingly illogical forces skew our reasoning abilities. Not only do we make astonishingly simple mistakes every day, but we make the same types of mistakes, Ariely discovers. We consistently overpay, underestimate, and procrastinate. We fail to understand the profound effects of our emotions on what we want, and we overvalue what we already own. Yet these misguided behaviors are neither random nor senseless. They're systematic and predictable—making us predictably irrational. From drinking coffee to losing weight, from buying a car to choosing a romantic partner, Ariely explains how to break through these systematic patterns of thought to make better decisions. Predictably Irrational will change the way we interact with the world—one small decision at a time. | | | Product Details: | | | Author:
| Dan Ariely | | Hardcover:
| 304 pages | | Publisher:
| HarperCollins | | Publication Date:
| February 19, 2008 | | Language:
| English | | ISBN:
| 006135323X | | Product Length:
| 9.3 inches | | Product Width:
| 6.4 inches | | Product Height:
| 1.4 inches | | Product Weight:
| 1.28 pounds | | Package Length:
| 9.3 inches | | Package Width:
| 6.6 inches | | Package Height:
| 1.5 inches | | Package Weight:
| 1.25 pounds | | Average Customer Rating:
|  based on 250 reviews |
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 Good science interrupted by unsubstantiated opinionNov 03, 2009
I was very frustrated with this book. On the one hand, the author clearly synopsizes a great deal of substantive research on why we do the things that we do. His discussions of the different cognitive biases are clearly explained and well supported by research (some his own). As the title suggests, humans are not perfectly rational creatures but we do behave in consistent and generally predictable ways. The material in this book can help us to understanding the why behind our thoughts.
The concept of behavioral economics is not as new or radical as the author implies (the Freakonomics books are another recent example) but this is an excellent overview of several decades worth of material. And I must admit to being very impressed by the scope of the work. Any chapter could have been expanded into a separate book. Ariely covers a lot of ground while still providing enough substance to be useful and informative.
Even better, the writing style is very approachable. It felt more like a conversation than a textbook. I'd already read many of the original studies that he references. This is by far the most readable version I've found.
My frustration seemed to come at the end of every chapter when the author leapt from a clear and research-based presentation of facts to an unsubstantiated conclusion. For example, in one chapter he spent pages discussing the imperfections of the market and why they can not make perfect choices. He makes a clear case that markets are really collections of people and may be unduly influenced by subtle human factors. Then on the last page he concludes that government would therefore do it better. His conclusion completely ignores the cognitive biases and unconscious influencers on the humans who make up the government.
In another example, he talks about sampling grapes at the grocery store in a discussion of honesty and the non-rationality of our thinking. His example overlooks the inherent information imbalance between the seller and buyer. Unlike homogeneous products like potatoes, grapes can be either very sweet or very sour. Nor can the buyer use physical inspection as a proxy for ripeness. Melons can be thumped and tomatoes checked for color but grapes are an enigma - they look and feel the same whether sweet or sour. Rational buyers know they can redress the information imbalance with a small sample. Without that assurance, they must discount the price they are willing to pay as a hedge against the chance that they'll get a sour batch. Rational sellers know that by allowing the sample, they will command higher prices overall. Rational sellers however also have to avoid setting a tone where shoplifting is perceived as acceptable. The balance that a grape is acceptable but a lemon is not is a perfectly rational response to the information imbalance. And buyers know this, too, even if they are unable to articulate it in front of the men with white coats and clipboards. My (somewhat long-winded) point is that grapes at the grocery store fails as an example of "dishonesty". The story is incomplete.
I said earlier that the book was so readable that it was like a conversation. Let me qualify that it was a fairly stormy conversation. I startled my wife several times with outbursts at the unsubstantiated conclusions and fuzzy thinking on the part of the author. At one point I even threw the book across the room in frustration with the author. On the other hand, I finished the book - and now that I think about it, I finished it at 2 or 3 in the morning despite needing to be up early the next morning for a meeting. It certainly gets full points as thought-provoking and engaging reading. The book will load you up with lots of entertaining tidbits for dinner party conversation but read it with a healthy dose of skepticism and make your own conclusions about how to apply the research.
 Definitely read this if you want to have the lates info on personalityOct 25, 2009
I love this book. As a marketing professional and enthusiast for psychology and sociology. There are many great insights and studies in this book. So glad I read it.
 A Method To The MadnessOct 06, 2009
Dan Ariely's book is an interesting toe dip into the murky waters of behavioral economics. Prompted by his own personal tragedy and his torturous rehabilitation, Ariely has spent much of his life studying the seemingly meaningless choices humans make, and the rationalizations we create for making them. Everything from cheating to choosing beer is analyzed by him and his team, and the conclusions he draws are fairly interesting.
Not all that convincing, though. Much of his data comes from rather small sample sets, and many of his experiments seem unreplicable. Plus -- and this is a given in any social science -- his analysis also seems over-simplified. In the experiment on cheating, for instance, Ariely merely assumes that the students cheat when their scores deviate from the mean (when I would assume it would make more sense to install hidden cameras to catch students cheating). And when he tries to deduce why people behave in the ways they do, he limits his choices to a few polar contradictions. He goes for the "either/or" when, of course, people are far more complicated than one or the other. Again, it's hard to test for all of the possibilities, but that's also why I'd be more likely to accept his results if his experimental sets were in the thousands instead of just a few hundred.
I find his conclusions most intriguing, in fact, when they deal more with the economics aspect of the science. His points about the presumptions implicit in the free market system are the most convincing of the book. (I especially like his ideas for credit card companies to reduce debt.) Don't get me wrong, the book is still a fairly interesting read, even if Ariely's narration is rather weak (and his occasional attempts at humor are eye-rolling). As a springboard for discussion or a prompt for deeper study, the book succeeds. In and of itself, though, the book reads more like a nifty nugget of an idea than a revelation of anything new or groundbreaking.
Interesting entree into behavioral economicsOct 03, 2009
In Predictably Irrational Dan Ariely, a professor of Behavioral Economics at MIT, explains that--contrary to the assumption that underlies standard economics--people routinely act irrationally. Our decisions are based on factors that we're very often not even aware of. Our purchasing decisions, for example, may be influenced by an item's price (more expensive must be better) or its popularity or by the context in which we see it (surrounded by high-end condiments and displayed on fine china, for example, versus slapped in a styrofoam container). Our behavior toward others may be altered more than we would anticipate by sexual arousal. The likelihood that we'll steal depends on whether the item in question is cold hard cash or just something that could be turned into cash. (One is more likely to steal a Coke from a communal refrigerator than its equivalent in change.)
Ariely explores a host of interesting questions related to decision-making. In each case Ariely describes, in very accessible prose, the experiments he and his colleagues conducted while researching the question. (In many cases the experiments involved students at MIT or Harvard, who were asked to answer questionnaires or look at pornographic images or buy beer or eat chocolate.) The purport of the book is that, while people do behave irrationally, they do so (as the book's title indicates) in predictable ways, because of the way our brains our wired. And if we understand more accurately how people behave in fact, rather than in theory, we can force ourselves to think differently or we can put tools in place that will result in more positive outcomes. (For example, studies show that students who take an honor pledge prior to taking a test are less likely to cheat, so requiring an honor code may be a cheap and easy way for a school to decrease cheating. Or, if you're ordering food at a restaurant without knowing what the people you're with are ordering, you're more likely to order something you really want and are thus more likely to enjoy the meal. Restaurants could improve their patrons' dining experience by introducing "blind," private ordering.) It's an interesting and well-written book that should appeal to readers who've enjoyed Malcolm Gladwell's titles, for example, or Chris Anderson's recent Free (which rehashes much of what Ariely writes in his third chapter).
-- Debra Hamel
Brilliant readSep 22, 2009
I've found it hard to put this book down since I started reading it. It's a fascinating insight into human behaviour, presented in a clear, non-academic fashion.
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